Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar ended the week marginally higher but has struggled to clear short term resistance and there are some reversal patterns on the daily charts being seen so for now the trend remains down. We wrote last week that we may see a test of the $1.03 level and we did get that with the Aussie briefly moving above that level before moving lower again.

British Pound

The pound continues to trade in a box range and the past week saw the pound edge lower towards the bottom of that range. Short-term support is in around $1.5350 but if that is taken out then the lows of 2011 around $1.5250 will come into play. The trend remains down.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound fell was also lower against the Yen and the long-term trend remains very much down. As we wrote last week, since the Yen climbed to new 10-year highs against the Euro the prospect of further intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen may be on the cards.

Euro

The Euro continues with the bear market set up of lower highs and lower lows and new 15 month lows were posted this past week and the trend remains very much down. Due to the extent of the recent decline a dead cat bounce may be on the cards but a change of trend to up looks to be way off into the future.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro broke through good support this week and fell to new 15 month lows against the Pound and the trend remains very much down. The next support area is around 8150.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi advanced by 0.13% for a third straight week of gains but the move is far from convincing and looks like it could peter out at any time. The long-term trend remains down and the market remains towards the lower end of the wide range that has formed since the third quarter of last year.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar rose by 1% for the week against the Canadian dollar and continues within the recent trading range. The long term trend still favours the US dollar.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

As we wrote last week, the 9300 level should provide support due to change of polarity where prior resistance becomes support and that is exactly what happened, and the 9300 level became a platform for higher prices, which ended with the dollar reaching new 11 month highs against the Swiss franc. As we have written previously, once 9500 was taken out the next target would be 9700 and that applies now.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The dollar made a small weekly advance against the Yen but this market continues to offer little in the way of trading opportunities. It seems evident that the Yen wants to be higher but is continually held back either by intervention from the Bank of Japan or the prospect of intervention. The long-term trend continues to favour the Yen.

We'd like to wish all of our readers a very Happy and Prosperous New Year.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar advanced by 0.95% for a second straight week of gains. The trend still remains down but the Aussie is looking better in the short term than it has of late. We may now see a test of resistance around $1.03.

British Pound

The pound ended the week lower even though it made quite a strong recovery on Friday. Thursday's low was the lowest level seen for the Pound since early October. The trend remains down with good short-term resistance in place around $1.5760.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound fell by over 2% for the week against the Yen, which is starting to look good again. However, since the Yen has this past week reached a 10-year high against the Euro the prospect of further intervention by the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen may be on the cards.

Euro

The Euro fell to its lowest level in almost a year and continues to make lower high and lower lows and remains very much in a long-term donwtrend. We wrote last week that the downside target was at $1.29 and that was reached this week.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro had been pushing higher against the pound until Friday, where a bearish engulfing pattern was formed erasing the gains of the 2 prior trading days. The Euro ended the week lower by just 0.05% and remains in a long-term downtrend.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi advanced by 0.78% for a second straight week of gains and looks to be set to test the recent highs around the 7800 area. The trend however still remains down.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar fell by 0.2% for the week against the Canadian dollar but remains in the middle of the short term trading range. The trend however is still up and support can be expected around the parity level.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The dollar managed a small gain against the Swiss Franc of 0.33% for the week. On a closing basis the 9300 area is providing support (prior resistance becomes support). If the market does close below that level we may see some further weakness and a test of 9200 support. For now the trend remains up.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The dollar fell by 1.33% against the Yen for the week and most of that decline came on Friday. The trend remains down for the dollar against the Yen, the only currency that it remains in a downtrend against. Around these levels though we can begin to look at further intervention from the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen once again.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar advanced by 2.2% for the week, almost completely erasing the losses from the previous week. We now have a short-term range between $1.0268 (resistance) and $0.9761 (support). The long-term trend remains down but a break of either of those levels could yield a decent move.

British Pound

The pound initially made quite a strong move to the upside but stumbled at resistance, which held firm and subsequently sent the pound lower again. The pound however was still able to hold on to a 0.85% gain for the week. The trend remains down with good short-term resistance in place around $1.5760.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound managed a weekly gain of 1.11% against the Yen but still remains in a long-term downtrend. We are now roughly in the middle of a short-term range that spans from approximately 125 to 117.

Euro

Perhaps surprisingly considering the rally in equities, the Euro did not make much of a move. Having moved as high as $1.32 earlier in the week the Euro was unable to hold on to most of those gains and by the end of the week had only managed an advance of 0.26%. The downside target remains in place at $1.29 and the trend remains down.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro fell to its lowest level against the Pound since early January and remains in a long-term downtrend. Some measure of support has though been found at these levels with the formation of a morning star pattern on the daily chart, which is a short-term bullish reversal pattern. Whether that support holds and pushed the Euro higher remains to be seen but the short-term trend still remains down.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi advanced by 1.86%, erasing the losses from the prior week and now looks set for another test of the 7800 resistance area. The trend however still remains down.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar fell for 5 straight days against the Canadian dollar, culminating in a loss for the week of 1.94% and forming a large bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly charts. The trend however is still up and support can be expected around the parity level.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The dollar held up better against the Swiss franc than it did against any other market (aside from the Yen) and only declined by 0.10% for the week. On a closing basis the 9300 area is providing support (prior resistance becomes support). If the market does close below that level we may see some further weakness and a test of 9200 support. For now the trend remains up.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The dollar gained 0.25% against the Yen for the week, the only currency against which it managed an advance. This pairing is still trading within a fairly narrow range as it has for the past few weeks. Monday did see an exception to that quiet trading with a decent move higher intraday which was rejected just south of the 200 day moving average and ended with the formation of a large shooting star pattern. Both of these levels will need to be cleared before there is any chance of a change of long term trend.

Friday was quarterly currency expiration, which saw contract roll out of December into March. Comments below refer to the March contract.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar ended the week lower by 2.46% and moved back below the parity level. The trend remains down for the Aussie and we may see a continuation lower towards the bottom of the range around 9600 soon.

British Pound

The pound was lower for the week by 1.04% bringing an end to the prior 2 weeks of gains. As before resistance around $1.58 continues to hold and we did get a brief look at $1.54 as we suggested may happen next wee. If $1.54 gives way than a test of recent lows around $1.5250 may follow.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound continues to trend lower against the Yen but has remained in a fairly tight range over the past few weeks. As before, we may see the Pound fall as far the September lows around 117 on the March contract, directly into Bank of Japan intervention levels.

Euro

The Euro made a big move lower, declining by 2.57% for the week and taking out our targets at $1.32 and $1.31. We may now see $1.29 as the next destination and the trend remains clearly down.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro fell to 10 month lows against the Pound as the long tern trend continues down. As expected the recent lows were tested and taken out and the next target will be 8350.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi dropped 1.78% for the week having broken out of the range that we wrote about last week. The next target will be the 7325 area. The trend remains down.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar gained 1.94% for the week against the loonie but did back off a touch from the highs of the week at $1.0446. Support around the parity level has continued to hold and we may see an upside breakout soon. The trend remains up.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The trend remains up for the dollar and will continue to do so as long as support around 9000 holds. The past week saw an advance of 1.40% but the gain was considerably higher mid-week before a bit of selling into the weekend. The dollar had been as high as 9523, which was the highest level since February. If the highs of last week can be taken out the next target will be around 9700.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The dollar gained 0.47% for the week bit continues to stay in a fairly narrow range with very little in the way of tradable opportunities. The long-term trend remains down and the 7800 resistance level continues to hold firm. If that level can be taken out then this pair may become more interesting.

The long-term trends are still as they have been for much of the year, down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures.

Stocks

The past week has seen stocks continue their recent short-term advance but they still remain below resistance, in a long-term downtrend, and the short-term trend is still down. On a seasonal basis this is generally a bullish time of year but as we have said many times before this is never sufficient in and of itself to take place trades. Only a few weeks ago we were in a similar position where seasonal bullishness around Thanksgiving suggested strength for stocks but Thanksgiving week ended up being the worst Thanksgiving week since 1932. What is of far more importance is the resistance area around 1275 and also up to 1300. If this resistance area can be taken out then we may see some further rallies but equally should resistance hold then a move lower towards the bottom of the recent range may follow.

This Friday is quarterly stock index expiration so these markets roll out of December and into March at the end of the week.

Commodities

Gold continues to trade within an large triangle formation that goes back as far as September. The price action within the triangle is compressing which generally means that the market is beginning to coil up in preparation for a decent sized move once it makes the eventual breakout. For now the breakout could go in either direction but the long-term trend does remain up for gold, the only metal that this holds true for.

Crude failed to reach the November highs at $103.37 and ended the week lower by 1.54%. This move took Crude back below the psychological $100 level but the long term trend still remains up. Friday saw Crude find support from the 200 day moving average and recover some of the week's losses but this support needs to hold or we may see a move lower to at least $95 in short order.

As we have written before, the weakest sector of commodities of late has been the grains and this sector has also been the nest trending of late with almost the entire sector continuing to trend lower. This past week saw Rice give a confirmed trend change to down, meaning that all the grains markets are now in a long-term downtrend.

Currencies

Currencies for the most part have been uneventful and have ended the week pretty flat. The weekly charts for many of the major show some form of doji pattern, which represents indecision. The long- term trend still favours the dollar against all the major currencies with the exception of the Yen where the trend is still down.

This Friday is also quarterly expiry for currency futures, so the end of the week sees currency futures roll out of December and into March.

Interest rate futures

We wrote last week that the lower levels were being rejected in the interest rate futures market and there was further evidence of that this week as key support levels continued to hold. This has kept yields near record lows with the yield on the 5-Year note actually falling to a new low. The upside still looks limited from here and there is more risk to the downside but the long term trend still remains up as it has for nearly all of 2011.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar is the ultimate risk currency so it shot higher last week during a bullish week, which ended ahead by 5.54%. There are signs that that strong run may have run its course as we have a hanging man on Thursday and a shooting star on Friday, both of which are bearish reversal patterns.

British Pound

The pound advanced by 1.04% for the week but as is the case with most currencies, ran out of steam in the latter part of the week. This time we saw an evening star formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern, so the downtrend is still intact and we may now see a move back down towards $1.54.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound also gained against the Yen for the first week in 4 but remains in a long-term downtrend. As before, we may see the Pound fall as far the September lows around 116, but that will be very much in the territory of Bank of Japan intervention to weaken the Yen once again.

Euro

The Euro ended the week ahead by 1.25% to end a run on 4 straight down weeks. As with other currencies though the Euro had been higher earlier in the week but was unable to clear the resistance area at $1.36. We may now see a move back towards the prior week's lows around $1.32 with a possible move lower to our $1.31 target and the October lows. The trend remains down for the troubled Euro currency.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro is still largely drifting sideways against the Pound but remains in a long-term downtrend.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi had a big week, almost advancing as much as the Aussie but was subject to similar indecision in the latter part of the week as the market ran into resistance that has so far held firm. The trend remains down.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar fell sharply against the Canadian dollar and may now head down to parity, but the trend still remains up.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The dollar held onto support around 9000 and remains in a long-term uptrend. As we wrote last week if the dollar can close above last week's highs we may see a continuation towards 9500 and further out possibly 9700. The trend remains up.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The dollar is starting to gain a small amount of traction against the Yen but the long-term trend still remains down. Support is still in place at 7650 and resistance at the top of the intervention day high. Those highs will need to be taken out for a change of trend to up so for now the trend remains down.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar ended the week lower by 2.95% for a fourth straight week of declines. As we wrote last week there is now a lot of potential room to the downside, with the next support area coming in at the October lows around 9300.

British Pound

The pound took out the prior week's low to resume the long term downtrend and declined by 2.21% for the week for effectively the fourth consecutive week of declines. The December contract will now target the $1.52 level.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound was also lower against the Yen, this time for a third straight week of losses as the long-term downtrend continues. We may see the Pound fall as far the September lows around 116, but that will be very much in the territory of Bank of Japan intervention to weaken the Yen once again.

Euro

The Euro declined for a fourth straight week and continues to head towards our $1.31 target and the October lows. The trend remains down for the troubled Euro currency.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro initially pushed higher against the Pound but then reversed to end the week only slightly higher. The long-term trend remains down with support in around 8490.

New Zealand Dollar

The kiwi fell to its lowest level since March having taken out our first support target at 7400. The next downside target around 7000, the March lows. The trend remains down.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar continues to advance towards the recent highs at $1.0676. As we wrote last week, there is little in the way of resistance between current levels and the aforementioned highs. The trend continues to favour the US dollar.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The dollar continues to advance against the Swissie, having this week reached its highest level against the franc since February. Friday saw the dollar just break above the October highs intra-day but close back below right on the resistance line. If the dollar can close above last week's highs early this week we may see a continuation towards 9500 and further out possibly 9700. The trend remains up.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

Having been drifting steadily lower since the intervention day from the Bank of Japan, the dollar found support at 7650 as we had expected over the past couple of weeks and some decent buying of the dollar followed. Whether there is enough in the market to push towards the intervention day highs remains to be seen. The long term, trend remains down.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar ended the week lower by 2.66%, to make a third straight week of declines for the Aussie. Perhaps significantly, this past week also saw the parity level taken out. There is now a lot of potential room to the downside, wit the next real support coming in around 9300.

British Pound

The pound declined by 1.72% for the week and took out the first level of short-term support. If last week's low can be taken out then we may see a resumption of the long-term downtrend.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound was also lower against the Yen as the long-term downtrend continues.

Euro

The Euro declined for a third straight week and initially took out $1.35 support before narrowly regaining that level later in the week. The trend remains down with the next downside target at $1.31.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro/Pound pairing ended the week flat as it continues to move sideways in a relatively tight sideways range. The long-term trend remains down with support in at 8450.

New Zealand Dollar

This past week saw a large decline of 3.74% for the kiwi, which now looks to be heading for the next support area around 7400, where the October lows are. The long term trend remains down and if support around 7400 fails the door may open for 7000.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar advanced by 1.4% for the week against the loonie and resumes the long-term uptrend. That said, the recent rise has not been all that convincing with several small real bodies showing on the daily charts. Resistance wise, there is little to stop the dollar's rise until the recent highs at $1.0676, but momentum will need to pick up if the market is going to reach that level.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

The dollar remains in a bull channel against the Swiss Franc but momentum does appear currently to be waning as the market approaches the October highs. The trend remains up.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

We wrote last week that the charts continue to suggest that the only people that think the Yen should be lower at the moment are at the Bank of Japan. The Yen continues to press higher and reached the target of the mid point of the tall green candle that we suggested might happen last week. Some measure of support has come in around at the 7650, as we suggested might happen last week. The long term trend remains down and a steady drift lower towards the recent lows looks to be on the cards, with the only sellers of the Yen appearing to be the BOJ.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar ended the week lower by 0.96% but has formed a couple of potentially bullish patterns, namely the morning star on the daily charts and a hammer on the weekly charts. Both of which are bullish. That said, the long-term trend is still down and if the short-term support is taken out we may see a continuation lower.

British Pound

The pound ended marginally higher for the week, but only by 0.15%. As before, the trend still remains down in the long term but is bullish to neutral in the short-term.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound ended the week lower against the Yen but is still relatively bullish in the short term even though the long-term trend is still down. Following the Bank of Japan's intervention of a week earlier, the Yen has begun to gain a small amount of strength once again.

Euro

The Euro ended the week slightly lower but had been considerably lower earlier in the week. There is a quasi morning star pattern formation on the daily charts, which is short term bullish but the trend is down. If support around $1.35 can be taken out then $1.31 may be the next focus, conversely if support holds then a move towards the recent highs around $1.42 may follow.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro fell to its lowest level since February earlier in the week but has since put in a mild recovery. The trend however remains down.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest level in a month but as with other currencies, managed a small recovery on Friday but still ended the week lower by 1.11%. The trend remains down with support at just above 7700.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar ended lower by 0.48% but had been almost as high as $1.03 earlier in the week, which was almost a 1 month high. The trend continues to favour the dollar with support around parity.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

A strong week for the dollar against the Swiss franc saw a weekly advance of 1.77% and a 4 week high. Some minor weakness came in towards the latter end of the week but the trend remains up and the dollar is in a short-term bull channel.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The charts continue to suggest that the only people that think the Yen should be lower at the moment are at the Bank of Japan. Since the intervention the previous week, which led to a huge move higher for the dollar, the Yen has continued to gain ground. Often when we have such a tall green candle, such as was seen on the day of intervention that market retraces to the mid point of the candle's real body, suggesting that further declines towards the 7650 area may follow. The trend remains down for the dollar.

Australian Dollar

Following the prior week's strong upmove for the Aussie, this week saw that move reverse, with a decline for the week of 2.87%. The long-term trend still remains down.

British Pound

The pound fared better than most this week against the US dollar, declining by only 0.47%. The trend still remains down in the long term but is still bullish in the short-term.

British Pound/Japanese Yen

The Pound had a good week against the Yen, gaining 2.70%, but this was due to Yen weakness following the intervention from the Bank of Japan that we warned about last week. The long term trend remains down but in the short term the trend favours the Pound.

Euro

The Euro had a very volatile week and ended lower by 2.65%, having failed to clear the prior week's highs. The long-term trend is still down and support at $1.36 may be tested this coming week.

Euro/British Pound

The Euro also ended lower against the pound by some 2.19%. The long-term trend is still down and the 8800 level is still providing resistance. A test of the recent lows may follow this week.

New Zealand Dollar

Having reached its highest level in over a month during the prior week, the kiwi ran into resistance at 8200 and was unable to clear that level, forming an evening star pattern on Monday, which is a bearish reversal pattern. A 3.32% decline followed as the kiwi returns to the middle of the trading range.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The US dollar was sharply higher against the Canadian dollar, ending a 5-week losing streak. The weekly charts show a bullish engulfing pattern formation, which takes the US dollar back above parity. The long-term trend remains up.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc

There was also a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly charts in this pairing as the dollar was sharply higher for the week, having recovered from 7 week lows. The trend continues to favour the dollar.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

We wrote last week that traders should be on the lookout for intervention from the bank of Japan to weaken the Yen and we did not have to wait long for that. Monday morning saw the BOJ intervene with according to some estimates, $80 billion. The long-term trend still favours the Yen, and following the intervention the Yen did push marginally higher once more.